February 4, 2019

Evaluating Descriptive Claims

Plan for Today:

(1) Clarifications

(2) Measurement Error

(3) Sampling Error

(4) Sampling Error vs. Measurement Error

Clarifications

Variables vs Measures

These are closely-related concepts, but remember:

\(1\). Variables are not causes of or caused by the concept. They observable indicators of belonging to the concept.

  • If we have the claim that "Immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than natural born citizens", we would not create a variable for "immigrant-status" that captures causes of migration (e.g., political persecution) or captures some other consequences of migration (e.g., starting career anew)

Variables vs Measures

These are closely-related concepts, but remember:

\(2\). Variables and measures are both about what is observable, but variables must be general (not refer to values they take for specific cases, nor the procedures for observing them) where as measures must be about procedures for observing specific values

  • For this class, we will accept as "measures" for a variable any thing that is observable about that variable and is both more specific and descriptive of procedure than the variable it is purported to measure.

Measurement Error

Measurement Error

Validity and Reliability are about link between variable/measure and concept


Measurement Error refers to link between measure and variable.


measurement error

is a difference between the true value of a variable for a case and the observed value from the measurement procedure.

\[Value_{true} - Value_{observed} \neq 0 \xrightarrow{then} measurement \ error\]

Measurement Error

Two varieties of measurement error

  • bias/systematic measurement error
  • random measurement error

Measurement Error: Bias

bias or systematic measurement error: error produced when our measurement procedure obtains values that are, on average, too high or too low (or, incorrect).

  • Key phrase is "on average", because the error is not a one-off fluke, but even if you repeat the measurement the error will occur systematically.
  • can have an upward or downward bias
  • not "politically" biased.
  • Bias means getting a measured value that is differnt from the truth on average
  • bias might be the same for all cases or different across subgroups
    • example: economic evaluations and partisanship in surveys

Measurement Error

Random Measurement Error

random measurement error: errors that occur due to random features of measurement process or phenomenon and the values that we measure are, on average, correct

  • Due to chance, we get values that are too high or too low
  • There is no systematic tilt one way or another (no bias)
  • In aggregate, values that are "too high" are balanced out by values that are "too low" compared to the truth

Measurement Error

Is it a problem?

  • One type is mostly harmless
  • The other is a problem

Which do you think, and why?

Measurement Error

Is it a problem?

  • One type is mostly harmless (random error)
  • The other is a problem (bias, if we don't know its direction and size)

Measurement Error

Measurement Errors lead to Validity/Reliability problems


Validity/Reliability can fail on variable \(\leftarrow\) measure link

  • if there is bias/systematic measurement error \(\rightarrow\) we lack validity
  • if there is random measurement error \(\rightarrow\) we lack reliability

Measurement Error

Bias Random Error
Conceptual Problem Validity Reliability
Pattern Errors are systematic
(deviate from truth, on average)
Errors are random
(correspond to truth, on average)
When it's OK If it is UNIFORM across cases If false negative better
than false positive
When it's Not OK If it is different across cases/
we want absolute quantities
If we need precision/
have few cases
Solved by more data? No, bias persists. Yes, random errors "wash out"

False negatives/False positives:

Given the claim: "German communities with more Nutella-followers on Facebook have more anti-refugree violence.", a false negative, incorrectly concluding that the claim is wrong, can be preferable to a false positive, incorrectly concluding that the claim is right.

Often, in social science, we prefer to wrongly conclude that there are no differences between groups than to wrongly conclude that there is a difference.

Random measurement error (e.g., getting the wrong value of Nutella Facebook followers due to randomness in who makes their location visible on Facebook) leads to false negatives, because differences between groups that we compare are harder to detect.

Measurement Error

Which is Random Error? Bias?

Measurement Error

\(X1\) is biased

It consistently deviating from the true value of \(0\)

\(X2\) has random error

There are many large errors, but, on the whole, \(X2\) is centered on the true value of \(0\)

You could have both bias and random error

Measurement Error

Systematic Measurement Error/Bias

Sources

(\(1\)) Researcher subjectivity/interpretation - Researcher systematically over-weights, under-weights dimension of concept

Example

Political Knowledge

Expert interviewers assess "political knowledge". Might overweight language skills in measure of political knowledge

\(\xrightarrow{Downward \ Bias}\) political knowledge of people who have less grasp of language of interview

Systematic Measurement Error/Bias

Sources

(\(2\)) Obstacles to observation

  • social norms may discourage revelation of information; downward bias in "undesirable" phenomena
    • e.g. survey measure of racism or drug use \(\xrightarrow{}\) social desirability bias
  • incentives to hide/misrepresent: political actors have strategic reasons to conceal information from each other
    • e.g. states may present their military capacity to be better than it is (upward bias)
    • e.g. wealthy people may present themselves as less wealthy to avoid negative attention (downward bias)

Random Measurement Error

Sources

  • Imperfect memory (survey/interviews)
  • "Random" changes in mood/concerns (for surveys)
    • e.g. rain might make you more angry and support government less
  • Sampling errors (e.g., national statistics from random samples)
  • Researcher interpretation
    • e.g. random differences in classifying cases (like flipping a coin when you can't tell how to classify case)

Bias: Solutions?

  1. Researcher subjectivity:

    • More precise, clear rules for measurement procedure
  2. Obstacles to observation:

    • Social norms: Protect anonymity, subtler measurement
    • Incentives to hide/misrepresent: use private records, behavior not statements, interview after incentives gone

Bias: Solutions?

Repeating measurement does not help

Instead:

  • Improve the measurement procedure
  • Use multiple measures with different (independent) problems:
    • Upward bias in measure 1 may be balanced by downward bias in measure 2
    • Ideally, measures from entirely different sources

Random Error: Solutions?

If truly random: errors cancel out with many trials

Solutions

  • Repeat measure for lots of cases/individuals
  • Repeat measure for same case at multiple points in time
  • Have multiple researchers apply measure to same case

Sampling Error

Sampling

Sometimes we cannot answer descriptive claims directly

We would have to observe too many cases.

Example:

"Most Americans prefer a ban on semi-automatic firearms."

We can't interview all Americans

Sampling

Survey with \(1500\) people

Sampling

Is \(1500\) people enough?

Key terms:

population: full set of cases (countries, individuals, etc.) we're interested in learning about

sample: subset of the population that we observe and measure

inference: description of the population we make based on a sample

Example:

Measuring attitudes on gun control in the US:

The population:

  • All adults in the US

The sample:

  • 1500 people chosen at random

The inference:

  • 57% of Americans want ban on semi-automatic weapons, with some uncertainty due to sampling

Sampling

For sampling to work, we need to

  1. Ensure the sample is representative of the population
  2. Know the level of uncertainty associated with our inference

To do get both we need:

random sampling: sampling cases from the population in a manner that gives all cases an equal probability of being chosen

Random Sampling:

Random Sampling and large sample

\(\xrightarrow{N\rightarrow\infty}\)

(1) Sample Mean \(\approx\) Population Mean

(2) Uncertainty of Sample Mean \(\rightarrow 0\)

Random Sampling:

If we wanted to know: what is the average commuting time for students in this course?

population: all students in this class

sample: students in this class who are present during the last 2 minutes of Friday's lecture

What could go wrong here?

Sampling Error:

sampling error:

The difference between the value of the measure for the sample and the true value of the measure for the population

Two varieties

  1. sampling bias: respondents/cases control whether they join the sample, so not every member of population has equal chance of being in sample
  2. random sampling error: the process of random sampling means that sometimes we get samples where the average is too high or too low by chance (e.g. because we, by chance, interview only people with long/short commutes)

Sampling Error vs. Measurement Error:

Sampling Error vs. Measurement Error

sampling error can sometimes be measurement error, but it is not always measurement error.

sampling error is measurement error if your variable is the value of some population (e.g. mean attitudes in a province) and you get a sample that does not correctly reflect the population.

It is not measurement error if the value you are interested in the response to some variable on a survey.

Sampling Error vs. Measurement Error

Measurement Error:

  • Incorrectly describe the world because you incorrectly observe the cases you study
  • e.g.: measure "Racism" by asking people "are you racist?"

Sampling Error:

  • Incorrectly describe the world because cases you study are different from the population you want to learn about
  • e.g.: you want to measure anti-immigration sentiment in Canada by interviewing Canadian university students
  • Sample deviates from population in a manner related to what you study