March 11, 2021

## Objectives

### 1. Review

• varieties of deterministic causal claims
• complex causality

### 2. Probabilistic causal claims

• complexity $$\to$$ probabilistic claims
• recognizing probabilistic causal claims
• conditional effects

## Complex Causality

Causality may be deterministic… there are exact conditions for when effect always/never happens.

But in reality, it is almost always complex

• multiple, conjunctural, multiple AND conjunctural
• (INUS/SUIN conditions: see here)

## Voting Experiment

### Why do people vote?

• Lot’s of causal forces determine whether you vote

POLL

POLL

## Complex Causality

Does it make sense to say that “being shamed” is a necessary condition for voting?

• No. Clearly some people voted in absence of shaming

Does it make sense to say that “being shamed” is a sufficient condition for voting?

• No. Some people were shamed but did not vote.

## Deterministic Causal Claims?

We are often unable to fully describe deterministic rules for what causes produce an effect

• It is straightforward to state causal claims probabilistically: being shamed increases likelihood of voting.

## Probabilistic Causal Claims

### probabilistic causal claims

are claims that the presence/absence of a cause $$C$$ makes an effect $$E$$ more or less likely to occur. Or cause $$C$$ increases/decreases effect $$E$$ on average

• In contrast to deterministic causal claims this implies
• effect $$E$$ can happen when $$C$$ is absent
• effect $$E$$ may not happen when $$C$$ is present
• NOT a claim that politics has some inherent randomness (e.g. quantum mechanics)
• Usually make these claims when interested in effects of causes