February 27, 2019

## Plan for Today:

### (1) Deterministic Causal Claims

Review:

• necessary conditions
• sufficient conditions
• conjunctural causation

New:

• multiple causation

## Necessary/Sufficient Conditions

### necessary conditions

A claim that there is some cause $$C$$ without which the effect cannot occur

• If not $$C$$ then not $$E$$

### sufficient conditions

A claim that there is a cause $$C$$ that, on its own, always produces effect $$E$$

• If $$C$$ then $$E$$

## Conjunctural Causation:

### conjunctural causation:

When an effect $$E$$ depends on a combination of causes $$(C_1, C_2, \ldots, C_k)$$

This can take two forms:

### Multiple necessary conditions

Effect $$E$$ only happens when some combination of causes $$C_1, C_2$$ is present

• If not $$C_1$$ and $$C_2$$, then not $$E$$.

## Conjunctural Causation:

### Conditional Effects

Effect $$E$$ of cause $$C_1$$ differs depending on some other factor $$C_2$$

• If $$C_1$$ and not $$C_2$$, then $$E_1$$; If $$C_1$$ and $$C_2$$, then $$E_2$$
• Exposure to Nazi Radio Propaganda (in 1930s) caused
• increase in anti-Semitic violence in communities with history of pogroms
• decrease in anti-Semitic violence in communities with no history of pogroms

## Multiple Causation:

### multiple causation:

Claim that more than one sufficient causes or set of causes ($$C_1, C_2, \ldots C_k$$) can produced the same effect $$E$$

• $$C_1 \to E$$ OR $$C_2 \to E$$
• conjunctural causation also involves multiple causes, but the logic is different:
• $$NOT \ (C_1 \ and \ C_2) \to NOT \ E$$ (multiple necessary conditions)

## Multiple Causation: Example

### What causes a rise in anti-immigration sentiment?

Rise in anti-immigration sentiment caused by:

• Terrorist attack/major crime perpetrated by a non-citizen

or

• Increase in unemployment/competition for jobs

or

• Increase in popularity of ethno-nationalist ideology

Each of these is a sufficient cause, so it is multiple causation

## What is this, though?

### What causes a building to burn?

A building will burn when:

• The $$(A)$$ the building has a wood frame and $$(B)$$ there is a short circuit in electrical wiring

OR

• In the building there is $$(C)$$ a can of gasoline that is next to $$(D)$$ a furnace with an ignition

## Multiple and Conjunctural Causation

### It is both

Multiple sufficient conditions for a building to burn; each sufficient condition has multiple necessary conditions

1. $$(A)$$ wood frame and $$(B)$$ short circuit

2. $$(C)$$ gas can and $$(D)$$ furnace

## Multiple and Conjunctural

### Why do civil wars happen?

• $$C_1$$: ethnic diversity AND $$C_2$$: political inequality between groups (e.g., Sri Lanka; Kurds in Turkey)

OR

• $$C_3$$: interference by foreign governments AND $$C_4$$: left-right ideological polarization (e.g., Nicaragua; Spain)

## INUS Conditions

You will not be assessed on this (but it might be helpful)

Because causality can be complex, we say that: Something is a cause $$C$$ of effect $$E$$ if

$$C$$ is [I]nsufficient but [N]ecessary part of a condition which is itself [U]nnecessary but exclusively [S]ufficient for the effect $$E$$

Example: Wood frame is a cause of building fire, because

1. $$(A)$$ Wood frame and $$(B)$$ short circuit is [S]ufficient for fire.
2. $$(A)$$ and $$(B)$$ [U]nnecessary for fire (b/c there are other ways).
3. $$(A)$$ Wood is [N]ecessary for $$(B)$$ short circuit to produce fire.
4. $$(A)$$ Wood by itself is [I]nsufficient to produce fire.

## Deterministic Causal Claims

When we seek to investigate causes of effects (we focus on an effect and attribute causes that produce it)…

in principle, there is a list of all conditions (conjunctural or otherwise) under which effect will always or never occur

• e.g. a list of all combinations of conditions that can create the effect of a building burning.
• such a list would let you determine exactly when effect occurs vs not.

## Deterministic Causal Claims

When we seek to investigate effects of causes (we reverse focus and look at causes and what effects they produce),

### does it make sense to speak deterministically?

e.g., does it make sense to claim:

• "Wood framing causes buildings to burn down (every time)?"
• "Short circuits cause buildings to burn down (every time)?"
• "Presence of indoor gas furnaces cause buildings to burn down (every time)?"