• South-North vs South-South immigration
• Refugees and identity formation in Tanzania
• Evidence

• Dancygier (2010) looked at immigration to UK, Europe
• But refugee and immigrant flows by far between countries in the Global South, not to Europe/North America

What might be different about immigration in this context compared to immigration to places like UK, Canada?

Possible differences:

• immigration driven more by conflict/displacement?
• immigrants/refugees enter already ethnically diverse societies
  • weaker states, weaker national identity
• immigrants/refugees may have co-ethnics in the host country
• assistance from UN/humanitarian organizations?

Thinking about explanations for ethnic conflict we’ve discussed…

How might the influx of refugees across a border affect ethnic identification and ethnic politics?

Kigoma region of Tanzania

• home to 35 ethnic groups
• border with Burundi
• colonial border divided linguistic-cultural group
• Ha (ethnic majority in Kigoma) share language, culture, intermarriage, trade with Hutu population in Burundi

Repeated ethnic violence in Burundi has displaced hundreds of thousands (1972, 1993)

• The displaced were primarily Hutus
• Political crisis in Burundi 2015 triggered protests and violence:
  • 230,000 people fled Burundi into Kigoma
  • Kigoma region is only 2 million people
  • 10% shock in population over 1-2 years

Refugee influx:

What are your expectations?

Will refugee inflow…

• increase salience of Ha-Hutu ethnic group identity vs others?
• increase salience of insider (national) vs outsider (refugee)?
• fail to change salient ethnic identities?

Building on Social Identity Theory:

• Refugees perceived as a threat (destabilizing, competing for resources)
• Co-ethnicity with refugees lowers ethnic group status
• To maintain positive status \(\to\) emphasize national over ethnic identity
• Humanitarian aid to refugees \(\to\) demands for public goods as national citizens

Surveyed people in 2016:

• after refugee influx
• before creation of additional refugee camps

Greater national identification near existing refugee camps ## Zhou (2019): Evidence

Experiment: what if you remind people about refugee camps?

In focus groups, when reminded of refugees

• made more demands about public goods
• emphasized schooling
• schools depend on local committees to raise funds, monitor performance

Comparing schools in 2017 (post-influx) against 2012…

Bigger improvement in performance near refugee camps

• In-migration of co-ethnics can lead to emphasizing national identity
• Antagonism toward refugees
  • leads to overcoming ethnic divisions within a country
  • solving collective action problems
• This is a psychological story… where are the institutions?
  • Tanzanian government hostile toward refugees in multi-party era (strategic)
  • History of nation-building policies in Tanzania (structural)