Recap

Discussion

Evidence

When do frames work/fail?

Frame success and violence

Keep in mind:

1. Coordination vs. Persuasion

2. What makes frames work:

• credibility (believable; credible messenger)

• salience

1) Do social media frames change enough?

2) Delayed effects of social media?

3) Selection into "Treatment"

Does social-media hate speech translate into real-world behavior?

Anti-Refugee content on Facebook and Anti-Refugee violence

• Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) Facebook Page

Does AfD Facebook content drive anti-immigrant violence?

If anti-refugee sentiment spreads through Facebook, we would expect hate crimes to be more likely to occur in municipalities with higher exposure to social media

Anti-Refugee Violence

• 3335 events from January 2015 to early 2017
• Reported in media outlets
• property damage, assault, arson, demonstrations

Facebook anti-Refugee rhetoric

• ~200K posts on AfD page
• use word "Refugee"

Facebook Exposure

• ~90K users on AfD Facebook page; locations for 40K
• ~63K users on Nutella Germany Facebook page; locations for 20K

Nutella captures Facebook exposure, without selection on far-right politics

(1) Compare municipalities to themselves over time

• "Control" for national trends; unchanging attributes of cities

(2) "Treatment" of Facebook Rhetoric same for all

(3) Exposure to "Treatment" varies with Facebook users

Do cities with more Facebook users have greater increases in violence in weeks with anti-immigrant Facebook activity compared to weeks without anti-immigrant Facebook activity than cities with fewer facebook users?

Compared to Frankfurt (6.5 AfD Facebook Users/10,000), Dresden (9.6 AfD Facebook Users/10,000) estimated to have 50% more attacks on refugees in a week with average anti-refugee Facebook posts.

Results the same

• Looking at Nutella Facebook users
• Comparing cities in same county in the same week

• Effects go away when places have internet disruptions/Facebook issues
• Effects only significant for anti-Refugee rhetoric (as opposed to other topics) on AfD page
• Effects reduced when competing news (Brexit, Trump, UEFA)
• Effects of social media persist even when accounting for "traditional" media coverage

Likely that social media exposure drives anto-refugee violence

Is it persuasion or coordination?