Persuasion

"Echo chambers" alter empirical credibility, messenger credibility

• what is "True"? what sources are "Fake news?
• Algorithms direct people toward more resonant frames

Changing salience:

• network makes certain values seem more relevant to reality

More extreme frames

Coordination

Ability to organize violence

• Easier to meet online than in person, build network rapidly

Changing cost of action:

• Social pressure (within social network) to do violence
• Supportive voices offsets risk of condemnation

Facebook exposure causes anti-Refugee violence in Germany

• How big is this effect?
• What kinds of violence does it affect?
• How does it work?

Rwanda:

Radio and coordination

Germany:

Radio and persuasion

• Colonial Origins of Hutu/Tutsi divide
• Independence created political struggle
• Civil War in 1980s, Tutsi armed group
• Breakdown of peace process in 1993-4

RTLM

• Government-run radio station

Framing

Diagnostic frames:

• Emphasized RPF (Tutsi armed group) atrocities
• Alleged local Tutsis involved in conspiracy to dominate Hutus
• Dehumanized Tutsis as "cockroaches"

Prognostic frames:

• Preemptive violence necessary for "self-defense"

Did radio endorsement of violence cause violence?

Was it persuasion? Coordination?

Some intuitions:

Persuasion

Violence perpetrated by individuals could be coordination or persuasion

Coordination

Violence perpetrated collectively likely coordination

exponential effects suggest coordination rather than persuasion

"Spill-over"/"neighboorhood" effects of radio suggest coordination

Selection Effects

Radio transmitters built by government…

built in places with disposition toward violence?

Examine Exposure to Radio

• after accounting for distance from transmitter
• variation within local districts

Exposure to radio arbitrarily disrupted by local hills/mountains

Moderate increase in individual violence

could be coordination

• government endorsement of violence reduces costs for individuals

could be persuasion:

• convinced by threat posed by Tutsi/dehumanization

Coordination:

Increase in collective violence at high radio exposure

• shift to violence that requires planning and cooperation
• non-linear… more people join after first people participate

Spillovers:

More violence in village if neighboring villages have radio exposure

• coordination, not persuasion… because spillovers amplify local radio effects, not offset

Did exposure to the radio increase violence against Jews?

Examine two time periods:

• 1928-1932 (Moderate control over radio)
• 1933-1938 (Nazi control over radio)

Changes in Radio Messages

• Anti-Nazi radio reduced Nazi membership, anti-Semitic harassment
• Pro-Nazi radio exposure increased Nazi Membership, anti-Semitic harassment

Persuasion or Coordination?

1. No effects on attacks on synagogues (more coordination required)

2. Exposure to radio caused more denunciations of Jews, open letters to Nazi newspapers (individual actions)

Persuasion or Coordination?

1. Opposite effects of Nazi radio in places with different histories of anti-Semitism

14th century pogroms against Jews predict Nazi-era violence, and

• Radio exposure increased anti-Semitism in places with medieval anti-Jewish pogroms
• Radio exposure decreased anti-Semitism in places without medieval anti-Jewish pogroms

Must be Persuasion and Dissuasion

• Resonance and lack of Resonance drive different responses
• Most effects on individual-level behavior