Persuasion

"Echo chambers" alter empirical credibility, messenger credibility

• what is "True"? what sources are "Fake news?
• Algorithms direct people toward more resonant frames

Changing salience:

• network makes certain values seem more relevant to reality

More extreme frames

Coordination

Ability to organize violence

• Easier to meet online than in person, build network rapidly

Changing cost of action:

• Social pressure (within social network) to do violence
• Supportive voices offsets risk of condemnation

Facebook exposure causes anti-Refugee violence in Germany

• How big is this effect?
• What kinds of violence does it affect?
• How does it work?

Rwanda:

Radio and coordination

Germany:

Radio and persuasion

• Colonial Origins of Hutu/Tutsi divide
• Independence created political struggle
• Civil War in 1980s, Tutsi armed group
• Breakdown of peace process in 1993-4

RTLM

• Government-run radio station

Framing

Diagnostic frames:

• Emphasized RPF (Tutsi armed group) atrocities
• Alleged local Tutsis involved in conspiracy to dominate Hutus
• Dehumanized Tutsis as "cockroaches"

Prognostic frames:

• Preemptive violence necessary for "self-defense"

Did radio endorsement of violence cause violence?

Was it persuasion? Coordination?

Some intuitions:

Persuasion

Violence perpetrated by individuals could be coordination or persuasion

Coordination

Violence perpetrated collectively likely coordination

exponential effects suggest coordination rather than persuasion

"Spill-over"/"neighboorhood" effects of radio suggest coordination

Selection Effects

Radio transmitters built by government…

built in places with disposition toward violence?

Examine Exposure to Radio

• after accounting for distance from transmitter
• variation within local districts

Exposure to radio arbitrarily disrupted by local hills/mountains